With a massive majority, and four to five years until they need to worry about the next general election, they have the freedom to make the changes they think necessary.

So what changes are we expecting?

There’s only one way to find out… introducing the Rickard Luckin Budget Bingo Card ! 

How to play: Cross off a square every time a phrase on the card is mentioned during the Budget speech.

Get five squares in a row and you can shout out ‘Budget Bingo!’

Cross off all the squares on the card and you have yourself a ‘Full House (Of Commons)’!

Play along at home

So let us explain why we are betting on these particular words being uttered. One square at a time…

• Economic stability : being the Budget’s ultimate goal, which Labour says has been made more difficult by their...
• Tory inheritance : Reeves said the state of finances inherited from the last government was ‘unforgivable’, claiming that ‘they spent like there was no tomorrow because they knew that someone else would pick up the bill’, leaving a…
  
• Black hole :… of £22 billion in the nation’s finances, which is forcing her to make...
  
• Difficult decisions : Keir Starmer has already warned us that this Budget is going to be ‘painful’ and particularly so for those with the... 
  
• Broadest shoulders : being those who will suffer the biggest tax burden, likely the wealthiest (not bodybuilders). But, who are these people? Well, we’ve been promised that they’re not…
  
• Working people : In their manifesto Labour pledged there would be no tax rises for ‘working people’. Reeves confirmed this ‘means we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, or VAT’ (other than VAT on private school fees.)
  
  And they’re not companies either, as Labour has also pledged that it will not increase corporation tax or reduce capital allowances.
  

So this leaves us with Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax and pensions as Labour has consistently refused to rule out rises to these. These, we expect, are the taxes of the people with the ‘broadest shoulders.’ Although we’re not sure anyone has told that to the pensioners.

This is all in the context of perceived…

• Fairness : A word which almost every Chancellor since time immemorial has used to mean ‘tax rises.’ We think the possible major contenders for this are...
  
• CGT rates : Some think it unfair that capital gains tax rates are significantly lower than income tax rates (ranging from 10% to 20% for CGT, compared with 20% to 45% for income tax payers). Residential property CGT rates are slightly higher at 18% and 24% but are still much lower than income tax rates. 
  
  Speculation is rife that the government might decide to raise CGT rates to align them more closely with income tax rates in pursuit of ‘fairness’. Of course, capital gains are often partly due to inflation and it remains to be seen whether the government will take account of this, perhaps by introducing a type of indexation allowance or by introducing a smaller increase in the CGT rate so that it does not quite reach parity with income tax (perhaps at around 30%). 
  
  The Chancellor will be aware that a careful balance is needed, as if CGT rates are too high, people change their behaviours and delay disposing of assets. HMRCs own recent report acknowledged that capital gains tax revenues do not always increase when the CGT rate increases and that these can, in fact, have the opposite effect.

Another possible line of attack on the CGT front could be on a relief known as…

• BADR :  (aka ‘Business asset disposal relief’). Where this applies, lifetime capital gains of up to £1 million per person are taxed at 10%, rather than 20%. This allowance is therefore currently worth £100K per person in tax savings and broadly applies to disposals of trading assets (such as shares in the family company). It’s a valuable relief, particularly useful when one generation wants to hand down the business to the next. It is thought that the government could potentially reduce the £1M allowance or increase the effective 10% BADR rate which would make it much less beneficial. 

A further option could be to remove the…

• Market value uplift : from assets that do not suffer an inheritance tax charge on death, whether that’s because they pass to the spouse (and are therefore exempt) or because they qualify for an inheritance tax relief (such as BPR or APR- see below). Some believe this to be ‘unfair’ because it wipes out the capital gain on the asset, as well as being passed on inheritance tax-free. 

At this point in the speech, as discomfort starts to settle in, it may time for the Chancellor to remind us that the revenue from tax rises will be spent (at least in part) on the nation’s beloved…

• NHS : guaranteed a mention in practically every Budget, in the hope that this common cause will bring everyone on- side. It might then also be time to bring up our..
  
• Public services : Starmer has said it is not possible to have both ‘low taxes and good public services’. Which leads us neatly back to tax rises, possibly being..
  
• BPR : (Business Property Relief). This valuable relief can significantly reduce or completely eliminate inheritance tax on qualifying assets. The Chancellor has previously shared her view that it is very generous and “allows a lot of extra relief to be claimed,” making it a prime target for the Budget. She might decide to cap it by possibly introducing a lifetime BPR allowance, and/ or by raising the ‘trading’ threshold from 50% to 80%, thereby making it more difficult for some businesses to qualify. Another option could be to withdraw BPR relief from AIM listed investments.
  

And also worth a mention could be…

• APR : Agricultural Property Relief provides inheritance tax relief for qualifying agricultural assets. Whilst there is speculation this relief could potentially be restricted (for example, on land let to tenant farmers), the general feeling is that may be less likely than a change to BPR, bearing in mind the impact that this could have on smaller farming businesses, who might otherwise be forced to sell land to pay the inheritance tax. In fact, APR may actually be extended in certain cases  and the Chancellor might decide to mention this to bag a few brownie points. With brownies in mind, the next item on the list is likely to be…
  
• Sausages : There’s bound to be some slip of the tongue mid- way through the speech, as the clock ticks closer to 1pm and thoughts turn to lunch. We all want to see the return of the sausages to the Common’s canteen menu. As the noise of tummy rumbling builds across the House, distraction is needed, and so we may be reminded that...
  
• His Dad was Toolmaker : To prevent thoughts straying too far on lunch, Reeves may see this a good opportunity to regain focus by reminding us of Sir Kier’s humble origins. It’s been a while since they mentioned it and we may have forgotten. No silver spoons on this side of the bench Mr Speaker, even if it is nearly lunchtime. With everyone’s minds refocused, it will surely be time to mention…
  
• Pensions : It is thought that tax reliefs for pensions could be targeted, as these are estimated to cost the Treasury around £50 billion per year. Possible options for the Chancellor could be to restrict income tax relief for pension contributions, reintroduce the pensions lifetime allowance, reduce or remove the pension tax- free lump sum (currently 25% of the pension pot), or even bring pension pots within the charge to inheritance tax on death. Such changes would be bold moves, especially after the withdrawal of the Winter Fuel Payment. 

Reeves will be keen to display her bravery further by letting us know she is…

• Cracking down : on tax avoidance and especially on..
  
• Tax dodgers : because nobody wants to be friends with them. But what is a ‘tax dodger?’ It’s not completely clear, but Reeves has shown her dislike for the tax advantages currently available to…
  
• Non-doms : Whilst the previous government had already announced a plan to move towards a residence based system for taxing non-domiciled people living in the UK, and abolished the concept of domicile, Labour’s manifesto promised they would impose further restrictions by…
  
• Closing loopholes : And not only for the non-doms. Carried interest is also a target. Whilst true loopholes are those unintended by the law, anything seemingly ‘unfair’ is potentially referred to as a ‘loophole’ these days, so an aim to ‘close loopholes’ is potentially a very wide net. Other perceived ‘loopholes’ are likely to be announced in the budget. As could possible changes to the…
  
• Nil-rate band : (being the threshold above which inheritance tax is payable). Within the inheritance tax rules there is both a basic nil rate band of £325K and a residence nil rate band (‘RNRB’) of £175K, but the rules regarding the latter are complicated. It’s therefore possible that the RNRB could be replaced under the justification of ‘fairness’ and ‘simplification’. Equally we can’t rule out a change to the 7 year rule (currently gifts made more than 7 years before death normally fall outside the death estate). However, we do strongly expect that there will be an increase in…
  
• SDLT : for non-UK residents, who will pay 1% more when buying UK residential property. Part of the ‘cracking down’.

Phew! What a list! Is that everything? Probably not. We won’t know the exact changes until Budget Day but we can’t say that we haven’t been warned that a…

• Storm : is coming. Starmer has told us it’s now time for Britain to “turn up our collar and face” it. They said all along it was time for a…
  
• Change : it was Labour’s election motto after all, and it seems likely that they will fulfil that promise at the very least. Raincoats on and umbrellas at the ready. This will be a Budget to remember.

Disclaimer : Unlike other games, getting a Line or even a ‘Full House (of Commons)’ wins you no rewards when you play Budget Bingo. In fact, your prize may well be an increase in your contributions to the Treasury.

It’s worth pointing out that whilst we anticipate some of the above changes, we’re not expecting them all, so we sincerely hope that no one scores a Full House (of Commons).

We commend this Budget Bingo Card to the House.